This article was originally published on May 29th, 2010. Since then, Nassim has continued to be controversial and thought-provoking. And I like having my thoughts provoked! Big Thought Definition of a black swan event: “First, it is an outlier, as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations, because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility. Second, it carries an extreme impact. Third, in spite of its outlier status, human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. I stop and summarize the triplet: rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective … [Read more...]